Is JetBlue’s Next Move a Power Play or a Desperate Gamble?

JetBlue is in discussions with several airlines about a new partnership, which it believes could strengthen its loyalty program and make it more competitive.

The airline’s President, Marty St. George, confirmed the negotiations at a Barclays industry conference in Miami this week. “We have said we’re talking to multiple airlines. We’re still talking,” he said. “If we find a deal that’s accretive, we’ll absolutely do it.”

TrueBlue is the True Gem

JetBlue believes a partnership would make its loyalty program, True Blue, more lucrative for travelers and help it lure big spenders away from competitors.

Unlike its legacy airline rivals, JetBlue isn’t part of an international airline alliance, so it doesn’t offer customers the ability to earn or redeem frequent flyer miles on flights around the world. Instead, it has a few ad hoc reciprocity agreements with airlines, including U.S. leisure airlines Hawaiian and Cape Air, Gulf carriers Etihad and Qatar Airways, and most recently, TAP Air Portugal.

Photo: Courtesy of Qatar Airways

However, a limited ability to “earn and burn” TrueBlue points and JetBlue’s smaller geographic reach keep some frequent flyers away.

“One of the things that we clearly hear from our customers is that the utility of a TrueBlue point is not as strong as the utility of a point from the Big Three airlines,” St George said.

“Given that we really don’t have full global earn and burn, I think to be able to add that to our network would be very, very helpful,” he added.

JetBlue Upgrades its Product

JetBlue has recently announced other changes to attract well-heeled customers, including opening its first-ever lounge later this year in New York (JFK) and debuting a premium credit card with Barclays.

The airline will also extend its top-shelf Mint class to shorter domestic routes next year. It is already selling an upscale “EvenMore” bundle on flights with extra legroom, free alcoholic drinks, priority boarding, and other perks.

Photo: Courtesy of JetBlue

JetBlue previously had the most loyal travelers in the business, earning repeat custom with its unique model of affordable fares and generous in-flight amenities. “We still have a somewhat fanatical customer base who loves JetBlue,” St George said.

Still In the Market For a Partner

Despite that cohort of loyal passengers, JetBlue has recently struggled to turn a profit and failed to capitalize on the post-pandemic travel boom.  Last year, it posted a net loss of $795 million, compared to a net loss of $310 million in 2024.

The Long Island-based airline has long seen a deal with a rival as a shortcut back to profitability, believing it needs to expand to compete with the Big Three.

Illustration: Courtesy of JetBlue Airways

However, its most recent efforts to team up with rivals have foundered. The Biden administration successfully sued to block JetBlue’s proposed $3.8 billion purchase of now-bankrupt Spirit Airlines on anti-trust grounds last year.

Another judge blocked JetBlue and American Airlines’ Northeast Alliance, in which the airlines synchronized schedules, swapped takeoff and landing permissions, and offered reciprocal loyalty benefits on flights between Boston (BOS) and New York’s Newark (EWR) and LaGuardia (LGA) airports.

Photo: Courtesy of JetBlue Airways

In November, a federal appeals court upheld that 2023 decision, stating that the alliance harmed competition and could increase travel costs for customers. JetBlue and American have argued that the deal would allow them to better compete with Delta and United, which have larger regional presences, offering travelers more choices.

St. George spoke nostalgically about the Northeast Alliance, the benefits of which he believes JetBlue and its customers hadn’t yet seen when it was suspended.

“The NEA [Northeast Alliance] was never fully played out. Just as we were getting to the back half of the ramp, the judge struck it out,” he told Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski.

Could JetBlue partner with Southwest?

Notably, the Northeast Alliance was approved under the first Trump administration, before being blocked under the Biden administration, which took a tough stance on airlines.

With Trump back in the White House, JetBlue’s next proposed partnership could receive a green light.

Photo: Phoenix, Arizona. Courtesy of Southwest Airlines / Stephen M. Keller

Which competitor is JetBlue likely to team up with? Rumors have recently focused on United and Southwest Airlines.

In January, United publicly denied that it was “in negotiations or discussions with any other airline regarding a merger, acquisition or similar strategic transaction.” However, the denial didn’t convince all aviation watchers, who have pointed out that JetBlue’s network could help United better compete domestically and give it a significant presence at JFK.

More recently, rumors have linked JetBlue to Southwest, itself in the process of a major transformation after activist investors Elliott Management took a $1.9 billion stake in the company.

Photo: Houston Hobby. Courtesy of Stephen M. Keller, Southwest Airlines

The rumors gained momentum when Southwest flight attendants union board member Chris Click, fresh out of an executive board meeting, confirmed “All this merger talk” and asked followers to speculate about which competitor Southwest might team up with. He put his money on Breeze Airways, while his followers bet on JetBlue.

Southwest’s announcement this week that it will slash 15 percent of its corporate workforce, including nearly a dozen members of its senior leadership, has further fanned the flames.

Cutting to Grow?

Could Southwest be shedding staff in anticipation of role duplication if it cozies up to JetBlue?

On the face of it, Southwest and JetBlue are unlikely bedfellows. They operate different aircraft models—Southwest with Boeing and JetBlue with Airbus—and have low-cost models that partly hinge on having simplified fleets, reducing training and maintenance costs.

However, like many airlines, Southwest has recently been frustrated by delays in deliveries of Boeing jets, which have forced it to postpone the retirement of older planes and slow its growth plans.

Also, Southwest might appreciate a chance to get its hands on JetBlue’s jets, especially the Airbus A321neo, which would be a vehicle for Southwest to launch routes to Latin America and Europe.

Photo: Airbus A321neo LR. Courtesy of JetBlue.

JetBlue’s existing European routes—to Amsterdam (AMS), Dublin (DUB), Edinburgh (EDI), London (LHR), Paris (CDG), and, beginning this summer, Madrid (MAD)—would give Southwest a shortcut into the crowded transatlantic market.

Would the partnership be a full merger, or might the airlines seek to coordinate schedules like JetBlue and American did?

JetBlue has suggested it’s open to anything. Its turnaround plan, announced in September, has set aside money for a deal but hasn’t specified an amount.

“We didn’t really gauge how big a deal would be or how small,” St George said.

Neither Southwest nor JetBlue have commented on the speculation.